Every week, I read lots of reports reports on housing trends, reports on costs, reports on the economy, reports on labour, and so on.
Trends and projections are always a favourite food for thought. I particularly enjoy reading reports that introduce contrasting schools of thought, although not so much from the same source or in the same publication.
Such is the case in some recent reports from a credible Ottawa-based financial consulting source. At the start of the article, it went to great lengths to tell the reader that 2012 was going to be a very good year for housing starts nationally.
Starts were going to be up around the 212,000 mark. Condo sales in Toronto and Calgary were increasing rapidly. Vancouver had temporarily righted its ship with some HST amendments. Atlantic Canada was in a growth spurt and Saskatoon, Regina and Winnipeg were ahead of previous years by 75 per cent.
In the very next paragraph, it called for a decrease in national starts to 177,000 units in 2013. The blame was placed on a lack of single-family detached growth and a decline in condominiums based on some speculation.
Let's take a closer look at these numbers. Atlantic Canada, Saskatchewan and Manitoba were never dependent upon the condominium market for their numbers. Calgary is starting to claw back from a few years ago and should hold steady. Toronto is not reliant on single-family detached numbers and neither is Vancouver.
Therefore, what this national report was really saying is that there will be fewer condos built in Vancouver and Toronto in 2013 than in 2012. There, I said in 15 words what it took them 15 pages to say.
A couple of Canadian Press reports also caught my eye recently. One reported consumer debt was growing at its slowest rate since before the recession; about 30 per cent lower than last year. Mortgage debt, credit card debt and bankruptcies were all down from last year.
Generally, a good news article, right? However, imbedded within this article was another smaller article, from the same financial source, that warned layoffs can be very dangerous to those carrying debt. Really? I guess this source wanted to give and take all in the same breath.
As I said in the introduction, all of this is interesting reading. However, drawing a conclusion from some of these lofty reports is another matter.
Mike Moore is president of the Manitoba Home Builders' Association.
