THE health of Manitoba's new housing market has been discussed in detail each week in this column. Starts in 2010 have been up sharply from 2009 and the growth has been credited to the province's fast rebound from the recession, continued strong immigration and favourable employment statistics.
However, how does Manitoba fare in comparison to the rest of the country? What factors in other provinces most heavily impact their new housing market? Are there issues that may come into play here at a later date?
Manitoba's net migration is performing very well in 2010, primarily at the expense of B.C. and Alberta, both experiencing sharp declines from last year. This is then reflected in the prices of new homes, where Alberta is showing the slowest growth in Canada.
Growth in Atlantic Canada has been solid for the past five years, particularly in Newfoundland, but with slower employment growth and a weakening in migration, the demand for new housing is expected to reduce.
Quebec has been long reliant on stimulus spending for its growth. With a reduction in available funds and a need to get a better handle on their budget, one can anticipate a flattening of the economy.
Some would have us believe that as Ontario goes, so goes the Canadian economy. In housing, this is not the case. Single family detached starts continue to slow in major urban markets but sales of condominiums are expected to rise.
Saskatchewan has experienced a strong rebound in 2010 after a disastrous 2009. Prior to that, Saskatchewan was growing at a phenomenal rate. It was then anticipated that 2011 would drop back down to previous levels again.
However, favourable job creation coupled with positive migration should keep start levels steady.
Alberta has had three very bad years in a row and 2011 doesn't look any better. The good news is that the bleeding has stopped and with employment recovery will come the need for housing.
Affordability is always an issue in B.C. With the overseas investment still questionable and the uncertainty of their future with the harmonized sales tax, B.C. is likely to remain flat in terms of growth potential in the near future.
Over the coming year, look for the Manitoba market to compare favourably with the rest of Canada and continue to enjoy steady growth.
Mike Moore is president of the Manitoba Home Builders' Association.
