THE latest housing forecast summary was released by the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation last week and the news is good for all aspects of housing in Winnipeg and Manitoba.
New-home starts in Winnipeg in 2011 will be on a par with the numbers achieved in 2010. Before you ask why standing pat at last year's pace is considered good, you should know that last year represented the most new- home starts in Winnipeg and Manitoba in the past 23 years ---- 3,244 and 5,888 starts respectively.
Overall, starts in Manitoba outside of Winnipeg were reforecast to be down slightly this year. This is a logical premise given the flooding conditions that existed throughout a significant part of the province.
Housing start numbers will continue to be strong throughout 2012 as there are no signs of easing back.
These numbers will hold true for single-family detached houses and for the multi-family sector. Condominiums, townhouses and row houses continue to be in demand, especially in Winnipeg. The city still has one of the lowest apartment vacancy rates in Canada, making that niche attractive to select builders.
How does Manitoba continue to produce such optimistic numbers? It's a variety of factors, never just one thing. Our unemployment rate continues to be among the lowest in Canada. Our GDP continues to grow at around two per cent. After a long series of double-digit price increases in resale homes, 2011 will represent an increase, but a softer one at around four per cent. New-home prices are increasing at approximately the same pace.
One interesting factor to note is that the price of land has been increasing much faster than the price of a new home, primarily due to some externally imposed charges that will be addressed at a later date. Inventory in single- and multi-family homes is quite low so there is very little on the market not already spoken for.
Given that the price of a resale home in Winnipeg is $67,000 less than in Saskatoon and $161,000 less than Calgary, this is still one of the most affordable places in the West to buy or build a new home. All indications for the rest of this year and 2012 are that there's never been a better time or place to build a new home.
Mike Moore is president of the Manitoba Home Builders' Association.
