The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) recently released its housing forecasts for the three prairie provinces. This comprehensive analysis included housing starts (single-family detached and multi-family), MLS sales and average MLS prices; not only for Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta, but also for the cities of Edmonton, Calgary, Regina, Saskatoon and Winnipeg.
The results were interesting, especially after such an active September. In September in the Winnipeg comparative market analysis (CMA), single-family detached starts were on a par with last year. However, due to a couple of rental apartment starts, the multi-family was up considerably from last year. It is dangerous to simply look at one month, but better to look at the year to date. From that perspective, singles were down a little and multis were up a little accounting for a similar total.
Looking at the bigger picture, starts in Alberta are forecast to decline by 10 per cent this year, but an additional 20 per cent in 2016. What is fascinating to note is although Calgary is feeling the pain right now, Edmonton is having a boom year in 2015 starts. Edmonton is then forecast to drop by 33 per cent in 2016 while Calgary holds at 2015 levels.
Next door in Saskatchewan, Regina new-home starts only dropped by single percentage points last year and this year and are then projected to level off. By contrast, Saskatoon had a very strong year in 2014, but is projected to decline by more than 30 per cent this year before levelling off. As a province, Saskatchewan in 2015, 2016 and 2017 will come nowhere near the performance of the previous two years.
In Manitoba, we experienced our biggest decline (14 per cent) in 2014. This surprised no one as 2013 saw the most starts in more than 25 years. It was unrealistic to think we'd maintain that pace. Our projections for 2015, 2016 and 2017 are fairly consistent with a slight increase in 2017.
What is interesting to note is the projected start numbers for Winnipeg differ somewhat from the Manitoba numbers. Winnipeg's start numbers will remain consistent through 2017, whereas the provincial numbers are turning upwards. This is due to the fact single-family units will be on the rise in each of the next two years, whereas the multi-family start numbers will be in a holding pattern.
Other speculation is the popularity of new-home construction as it relates to all costs in the bedroom communities may be more favourable than those in Winnipeg.
Either way, it is most important to note Manitoba and Winnipeg continue to show more stability in housing trends than our two neighbours to the west.
Mike Moore is president of the Manitoba Home Builders' Association
