THE Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation released its projections for Manitoba and Winnipeg this week and all signs point towards a continued strong market for new home construction.
From a provincial perspective, 2010 saw a huge increase in starts from the economic downturn that we all experienced in 2009. In fact, the 5,888 starts last year represented the most in the past 23 years. Of course, that kind of growth cannot be expected to continue every year.
The CMHC projection for this year is 5,225 starts with an increase to 5,400 in 2012. The Manitoba Home Builders' Association has maintained that anything over 5,000 represents an extremely good year, so the growth that is called for over the next two years is very good news.
Despite the moderate decline projected, the numbers in Winnipeg remain consistently strong. The 3,244 starts in 2010 represented a 60 per cent increase over 2009. Again, no reasonable person would expect that outstanding pace to continue.
However, the projected start numbers for 2011 only indicate a decline of 71 units. Single-family detached starts continue to increase year over year.
The small decline in starts is borne entirely by multi-family production.
The 2012 forecast calls for 3,200 total units.
The very small drop in starts this year appears to be occurring outside of Winnipeg. Without having to investigate any trends or economic patterns, it would not be unreasonable to assume that the flooding of both the Red and Assiniboine Rivers this spring had a significant impact in the surrounding areas.
Protecting everything you have must take priority. Neighbours helping neighbours was the order of the day. Although it's next to impossible to make up for lost time this year, look for those areas to make up those numbers in the near future. The demand is simply too high.
The MLS resale projection numbers spell good news for the new home market. A vibrant resale market enables sellers to move up to that new dream home they have been planning.
With the recent release that mortgage rates are expected to remain unchanged for the rest of this year, it remains a great time to build your new home.
Mike Moore is president of the Manitoba Home Builders' Association.
