Quite a stir was caused in Winnipeg on April 29 when Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation CEO Evan Siddall was in town for the Housing and Homelessness Conference. The CMHC had just published its second special edition of the Housing Now Canada House Price Analysis and Assessment. In it, Winnipeg was listed as a high risk.
Those two words alone were enough to cause headlines and frantic discussion. However, when one looks at the underlying message and what the experts actually said, it was truly much ado about nothing.
The report consists of six lines and four sets of arrows on Winnipeg. It states a risk of over-valuation based on house prices rising faster than incomes. This was true for a period of a half-dozen years starting a decade ago when Winnipeg home prices were well below their rightful place. Currently, resale homes increased in value by two per cent in 2014 and less than one per cent in the first quarter of this year. New homes in this market have only increased in price by one to two per cent recently due to changes in the building codes and costs of materials.
Winnipeg was a seller's market for all of those years. It is a balanced market now; exactly where most of the country sits.
The report made it very clear there were no concerns with the single-family-detached market.
Mr. Siddall used words and phrases such as, "There should be no reason for a major market adjustment," "The city's overall housing market remains healthy and robust," and "The sales-to-listings ratio remains healthy."
Ms. Himbeault made it very clear her office was not calling for a high risk of a price correction for Winnipeg. Acceleration in house prices, over-valuation and overbuilding risk factors were not increasing from the last assessment, but rather stable or unchanged. It should be noted Winnipeg, Regina and St. John's were not included in the previous (November 2014) publication.
Is it good to take note of this report and watch for future analysis? Absolutely. I take tremendous stock in CMHC publications and find them extremely astute. However, given all of the above, if Winnipeg's current housing market conditions are considered high-risk, I like our odds.
Mike Moore is president of the
Manitoba Home Builders' Association
