I just received a housing projection report from a very reputable housing analysis expert entitled "Most Major Markets Expected to Cool in 2013". Naturally, I was intrigued because two weeks ago, I received a highly trusted release that said "Prairie housing starts to remain elevated through 2013".
Why did these two reports differ and who was I to believe? As it turns out, both could be believed. I just needed a clarification of "Cool". Toronto is having an unbelievable boom year in 2012 with new home starts (primarily condos) up over 6,000 from the average of the previous 11 years. The forecast for 2013 is to return to the norm.
Vancouver new home starts are up 2,000 this year from 2011 and up 3,700 from the 10-year average. In 2013, the expectation is to drop to around that average or a little below. Calgary and Edmonton are experiencing start numbers in 2012 far superior to the doldrums of 2011. Projections for 2013 have both cities on par with this year or down negligibly.
Regina and Saskatoon have been through the roof the past couple of years, doubling and tripling 2009 numbers. Yes, the 2013 forecast for both cities shows a slight reduction in starts. However, down from all-time records isn't bad.
Finally, Winnipeg and Manitoba start numbers in 2012 are superior to what was projected at this time last year. In fact, they are better than what we thought even three months into this year. They are, in fact, the most starts in about 25 years. These start numbers should hold steady next year no big increase, no big decrease.
I guess when one doesn't improve at the same rate as before, it's called cooling off. If you hit a home run your first four times at bat and then hit a triple, have you cooled off or in a slump? Not likely.
Let's just take good news and good performance at face value and not look for the dark cloud.
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The 2012 Fall Parade of Home starts September 15 and runs for three weeks.
All Parade show homes are rated and evaluated by interested volunteers like you. Your opinion on what you like and don't like and how one house compares to another in a similar price range is important.
To register as a Parade judge, please call (204) 925-2560 or e-mail info@homebuilders.mb.ca.
Mike Moore is president of the Manitoba Home Builders' Association.
