Lumber prices in the trees

Homeowners who built decks last year are likely thanking their lucky stars this season. Lumber pricing across the board has been increasing consistently over the past months, reaching never-before seen heights. A brown treated 2x6 that was less than $16 early last year, is now more than $30.

Despite the high cost many of my clients who have their heart set on updating their backyards are for the most part proceeding with plans.

Typically, it isn’t uncommon for me to book a one or two deck projects in the middle of the winter for the upcoming deck building season. For the most part however, most of my quotes and subsequent bookings begin in late March and carry on into April. By May my calendar is usually booked two or three months in advance. I also have the ability to squeeze in an added deck project here and there before the hints of autumn begin to fall.

Last year however, the quote requests continued well into October and by early November, seven large deck projects were pre-booked for the 2021 deck building season. In my world, once a quote is accepted, a job agreement detailing the costs of the build is generated, and a small deposit on the labour portion is obtained to confirm the project and place the job in queue. Because these had been established so far in advance, a provision was added to the job agreements, that lumber costs must be revisited prior to ordering the materials in the spring.

Nearing the end of February 2021, it became clear that lumber prices were indeed on the move. The March 2021 pricing revealed a substantial hike in costs — most lumber had risen by 30 to 40 per cent. As such, all seven homeowners were contacted to explain the revised costs. I had determined that for the most part, the lumber amount alone for each job, was now roughly 30 per cent higher than the original total for all materials (including fasteners and hardware), for each respective job agreement. Things could soon be getting out of hand, and we needed to move quickly. I suggested that we order immediately, to lock in the current (albeit higher) pricing and establish early May delivery dates regardless of the build start dates. This would ensure we secured an order prior to the next pricing increase, as well as guarantee we had the lumber required for the build, and to avoid any lumber shortages (which had been an issue the season prior). All seven agreed, and the orders were placed. There have since been four additional deck builds scheduled and similar early order protocols were followed.

In light of this lumber absurdity, it crossed my mind to perform a small experiment, a cost comparison of past completed deck builds if they were to be built this season. The numbers are revealing, and disheartening.

In 2013, the materials (lumber, hardware, fasteners etc., excluding labour) for a 28 by 24-foot low-level deck built for a client in Tuxedo totaled $2,373.37 plus tax. If that deck were to be built this season, the materials become $4,948.73 plus tax – meaning it has more than doubled in eight years. Much like this first example, a two-tiered deck built in 2014 that included full railings and horizontal skirting that follows the slope of the ground, cost $3,655.50 plus tax in materials to build during that summer – this summer, the materials to build that same deck would now cost $6,453.90 plus tax. Another all-treated lumber deck built in 2015, that entails three tiers whereby the lowest tier accommodates a hot tub, boasted a material’s cost of $3,792.30 plus taxes. In 2021, the materials jump to $7,968.16 plus taxes, based on late March 2021 pricing – yet another example of doubling costs.

A more recent example is tell-tale of what we’re up against at present. Last June a three-tiered gem was built with lumber that cost roughly the same as it had over the past few years. And despite the need for the supplier to pilfer from five separate yards to accommodate the lumber needed to completely fill the order, the deck was fully built. A pergola was also added. When reviewing the materials costs from last year, I determined that an additional $2,724.74 plus tax would have been required for the deck alone, nearly a 50 per cent increase not including labour (which incidentally hasn’t changed on my end). I believe "grateful" is the word that was used to describe their decision to build last season.

Lumber prices are outrageous at the moment, no doubt about it. And unfortunately, there seems to be no end in the immediate future. Lumber costs will likely continue to increase throughout the summer months, with a slight possibility of levelling-off at some point. There may even come a time when lumber costs begin to drop. The general consensus within the industry is however, that no matter the decrease, it is unlikely lumber costs will ever go back to early 2020 pricing — it seems those days are now long gone. Place your orders early to avoid further price increases, and guarantee stock.

BossEnterprise@outlook.com