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Multi-family unit starts expected to jump
OVER the past two weeks, we have looked at CMHC projections for 2010 from a national and provincial perspective. Manitoba definitely appeared to be rebounding from 2009's recession at a faster rate than the rest of the country.
Of course, Manitoba was not hit as hard as provinces such as Alberta, British Columbia and Ontario so, given that the drop wasn't as far, the bounce back up needn't be as dramatic.
Housing starts in Manitoba are expected to increase by about 400 units in 2010 from 2009. Similar to slightly smaller gains are projected for 2011. Manitoba is once again experiencing slow but sure gains in the market, returning to the productive times of five years ago.
CMHC market analyst Fang Qin says that although residential building permits were down here in 2009, non-residential permits remained constant, thereby highlighting Winnipeg's skilled-labour shortage. The city's population increased slightly due to the provincial nominee program.
However, although the program increased our population, it didn't seem to alleviate the skilled-labour need.
Jeff Powell, CMHC senior market analyst, says single detached starts here are projected to return to the healthy levels experienced between 2003 and 2008. Prices will continue to rise moderately, primarily due to government-imposed charges associated with land prices. Coupled with this slight increase in price comes a larger movement by Winnipeggers towards higher price points when looking for new homes.
The biggest jump anticipated in 2010 is in multi-family starts. Partly due to the elimination of 2008 inventory and partly due to a hesitancy to start new large projects in 2009, this year could see the number of multi-family unit starts double from last year. Powell says we can expect significant resale price increases for at least two years until supply can meet demand.
In summary, Winnipeg housing starts are expected to increase gradually in 2010 with a larger jump in price point propensity than the rest of the province. Single-family detached growth will be steady while multi-family starts should jump dramatically.
Mike Moore is president of the Manitoba Home Builders' Association.
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Homebuilding industry prepared for growth
LAST week, we stared into the national economic crystal ball and saw that Canada is expected to rebound gradually from the recession of 2009. Similarly, housing starts for 2010 were expected to rise slowly but still positively. Manitoba's economic forecast was brighter, but the slow-but-sure approach was very evident.
Given how poorly Ontario, Alberta and B.C. performed last year, it would be natural to assume even the slightest rebound from the big three would dramatically impact our national statistics. After all, in terms of housing starts, whatever happens there has far greater national impact than what happens in the rest of the country.
Although those three provinces will be bouncing back, it will be a long, slow positive trend. The Manitoba forecast by the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation continues to be cautiously optimistic. Economic growth is expected to support more housing activity in 2010 than 2009.
Due to the nature of multi-family projects, starts in that sector fell sharply in 2009. Between the needs to finish selling 2008 inventory and to realize the requisite number of pre-sales to initiate a project, multi-family starts fell to 2005 levels of just over 1,100 units. A rebound is anticipated this year and, if the first two months of the year are any indication, the multi-family growth spurt has already begun.
Single-family detached units have always been the mainstay of the Manitoba housing market. Their consistency has been nothing short of amazing.
The provincial inventory of multi-family and single-family detached units hit all-time highs in late 2008. A good portion of 2009 was spent reducing this inventory to where it now sits at levels commensurate with the past 10 years.
Single-family detached starts in Manitoba are projected to increase to just above 3,300 units in 2010 from 3,000 units in 2009, adding another 150 to 200 starts in 2011. Multi-family starts were at 1,132 in 2009 and are expected to increase to over 1,300 in 2010, increasing again in 2011.
The Manitoba residential construction industry is buoyed by the CMHC projections and is cautiously optimistic for 2010 and 2011.
Mike Moore is president of the Manitoba Home Builders' Association.
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Canadian GDP predicted to enjoy rise
THE Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation recently hosted its Manitoba Housing Outlook Conference in Winnipeg. Hundreds of housing professionals attended the largest such presentation in recent memory, focusing on the national, provincial and local scenes with explanations regarding our past, present and future housing trends.
Chief economist Bob Dugan, in a presentation entitled Housing Market Conditions and Outlook, called for a steady increase in Canadian GDP to 2.5 per cent in 2010 and 3.2 per cent in 2011, with unemployment at just over eight per cent.
Although some concern was expressed over a potential one per cent increase in mortgage rates for this year, it was noted that we have been enjoying the lowest rates in more than 50 years. Previous economic downturns had demonstrated a rise in mortgages in arrears. Not so, this time, as they remain below .5 per cent as they have for more than a dozen years.
One surprising yet comforting statistic that Mr. Dugan put forward was the amount of equity that the average Canadian has in their house. His estimate was that nearly four in 10 homeowners have 30 per cent or more equity in their homes, considerably higher than our American counterparts.
Another CMHC presenter was Lai Sing Louie, a regional economist who presented information on the Manitoba economic scene. It was acknowledged that our province's GDP fell almost one per cent in 2009, but the forecast is for positive growth of between two and three per cent in each of 2010 and 2011.
The recent momentum in Manitoba's retail sales market shows confidence in the economy and is a good indicator for larger purchases. A 3.1 per cent increase in Manitoba average weekly wages in 2009 supports the theory of increased spending.
In addition, Manitoba's unemployment rate is projected to remain below the national average. Our net migration numbers are among the best in country and show no signs of slowing down. Another positive aspect is that our interprovincial migration is netting out near zero.
This is likely due to the fact that those provinces which historically have attracted Manitobans (B.C., Alberta) were hit much harder by the recent recession and the job and living outlook was far better in Manitoba.
Mike Moore is president of the Manitoba Home Builders' Association
New Homes
Follow local budget plans closely
THE proposed provincial and City of Winnipeg budgets were recently released, each praised in some circles and criticized in others.
The provincial budget was a deficit budget, and the government is in fact projecting deficits until 2014. That's a long time, and media editorials have warned that this could delay or eliminate new programs such as tax cuts while requiring increased user fees. Winnipeg city council approved an operating budget on March 23 that once again froze property taxes.
It's been suggested both budgets are election budgets, with a city vote this October and provincial elections a year later.
Given the inevitability of increased fees and budget deficits, it's interesting to look at what's going on in other jurisdictions and draw comparisons.
The U.S. still has a very long road to recovery. The dollar has been falling steadily over the past few months and some are calling for it to stay at its current rate for an extended period. Employment is likely to be the key to their recovery.
B.C. and Ontario will be implementing the Harmonized Sales Tax effective July 1. The entire country is anxiously watching to see the economic impact on theses provinces and the rest of Canada. Home ownership costs are definitely going to increase. In Nova Scotia, the government which has been in office less than one year is already considering increasing its HST by two per cent.
The federal budget plans to cut back the deficit by reducing spending and supporting economic growth, while not raising taxes. Finance Minister Jim Flaherty expressed confidence in the housing market, refusing to implement some suggestions that would make owning a new home more onerous.
Unfortunately, the popular Home Renovation Tax Credit will not be continued. Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney has called for a modest increase in interest rates in the near future with a 'wait-and-see' attitude regarding another increase in the fall.
So, we're all well advised to follow our local budget plans very closely. We can learn a great deal from neighbouring cities and provinces, both good and bad. Sometimes, slow and steady allows us to learn from the mistakes of others before rushing in to be first in line.
Mike Moore is president of the Manitoba Home Builders' Association.
