New Homes
New Homes
Low-income housing news also important
LAST week, the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation released its forecast for the rest of 2012 and for 2013. The news was certainly promising for Manitoba as continued growth was definitely in the picture.
However, articles in the Free Press indicate this growth may continue long-term and for all the right reasons.
The original forecast for 2012 was for 6,150 starts. This was then upgraded to 6,400 and now it sits at 6,800 starts for the year. In 2011, there were 6,083 starts, the most in more than 25 years. This year has been an excellent one for the industry as demand continues to run very high. It doesn't appear to be letting up soon as CMHC calls for 6,900 starts in 2013.
What encouraged me even more were a couple of recent articles about housing -- unrelated but equally important. On Saturday, Bruce Owen wrote an excellent article on the plight of non-profits that provide low-income housing.
In particular, he spoke of the newly formed Manitoba Non-Profit Housing Association and its first workshop in November. This large collective is committed to providing more housing in the province with a target market of low-income families.
On Monday, Brent Bellamy contributed to the series of articles regarding the development of the rail yards. This is just the most recent of some excellent in-depth articles on the subject of what might be done with the Canadian Pacific Railway yards northwest of our downtown.
Of course, this project isn't going to happen overnight, nor is it going to be the panacea for all our housing needs. However, once again, people are talking about the need for new housing in Winnipeg. There is continued enthusiasm about what could be done and what should be done. Either way, it spells continued growth for our city.
Although each of these items may be unrelated, they speak of the need for more housing. If we can provide the necessary housing, people will want and be able to live here. It all contributes to making Winnipeg a more complete city.
Mike Moore is president of the Manitoba Home Builders' Association.
New Homes
Winnipeg and Manitoba are reno leaders
Canadian Renovation Leaders. Both Winnipeg and Manitoba have earned this title. Let's look at some of the supporting information.
Winnipeg has the third-oldest housing stock in Canada and the oldest in Western Canada. On one hand, this means that builders here produce homes that last a long time. Manitoba builders have long been reputed to be among the best in Canada and, obviously, given our considerable variances in climate, our new homes have stood the test of time.
On the other hand, older homes generally mean increased renovations over time. The average square footage of a 50-year-old home is smaller than ones being built now, and so additions are a popular feature.
Manitoba leads the country in energy-efficiency initiatives, and so many renovations are for energy-saving upgrades. Many homeowners like their home, like their neighbours and like the local services they currently enjoy. So, rather than move, they renovate.
Manitoba is the only province where more money is spent on renovations per year than on new-home construction. This fact actually presents a double bonus for Manitobans.
Our renovation sector certainly enjoys a healthy existence, but this also speaks to the fact that our new-home market is extremely affordable with average prices tending to be lower than elsewhere in Canada. The combination of the two helps explain our leadership in that area.
The average renovation in Manitoba is slightly more than $8,000 -- below the national average in terms of costs, but leading the nation in frequency. With the cost of resale homes steadily increasing and inventory demand remaining high, this is an opportune time to consider a renovation for your home.
The Manitoba Home Builders' Association advises all consumers to shop with care when hiring a renovator for any project. Look for the RenoMark symbol to ensure that your renovator complies with all of the principles of this program.
A RenoMark renovator provides a detailed written scope of all work; offers a written warranty; carries a minimum of $2 million of liability insurance; ensures that all applicable licenses and permits are secured; and maintains a safe worksite.
All MHBA renovators carry the RenoMark label. After all, given that Winnipeg and Manitoba have earned the titles of the renovation capitals of Canada, it's only fitting that they continue to offer the best-quality service to their clients.
Mike Moore is president of the Manitoba Home Builders' Association.
New Homes
We can continue to grow at a reasonable rate
The second wave of information from the 2011 Census of Canada was recently released. This provided information on trends in population by age, which proved to be vital information for the housing sector.
In 2001, Canada's median population age was 37.6 years. In 2006, it was
39.5 years. In 2011, this increased over a full year to 40.6 years. Canada's declining death rate for those beyond 65 coupled with the progressive aging of our baby boom population accounted for this increase in average age.
At a median surpassing 40 years, Canada is one of the ""countries in the world. Only a handful of countries, including Japan, Spain, England, most of the Scandinavian countries and a smattering throughout Europe can boast life longevity as high as ours.
From 2006-2011, Canada's population grew by 370,000 and increased in all age categories except for the 35-44 group. What does all of this mean for housing?
Ownership percentages increase by age group as income becomes more solidified. The under 25 age group generally has very low home ownership percentages. The percentage increases significantly in the 25-34 age bracket and then increases sharply again in the 35-44 age bracket.
All age groups above 44 still indicate an increase in ownership, but the percentages do not increase as rapidly. A slight degree of concern arises nationally with the recent decrease in the 35-44 age group.
New-home buying rates indicate the rate by which households purchase newly built homes. The older the household, the less mobile they tend to be and therefore the less likely they are to buy a new home.
However, the concept of downsizing after empty nesting continues to stimulate the new home industry in spite of increasing household age.
National statistics do not always reflect regional patterns. However, it is always sage advice to heed these signs in our planning. In this manner, we can continue to grow and prosper at a reasonable rate in Manitoba.
Mike Moore is president of the Manitoba Home Builders' Association.
New Homes
It's tricky to draw conclusions from housing reports
Every week, I read lots of reports reports on housing trends, reports on costs, reports on the economy, reports on labour, and so on.
Trends and projections are always a favourite food for thought. I particularly enjoy reading reports that introduce contrasting schools of thought, although not so much from the same source or in the same publication.
Such is the case in some recent reports from a credible Ottawa-based financial consulting source. At the start of the article, it went to great lengths to tell the reader that 2012 was going to be a very good year for housing starts nationally.
Starts were going to be up around the 212,000 mark. Condo sales in Toronto and Calgary were increasing rapidly. Vancouver had temporarily righted its ship with some HST amendments. Atlantic Canada was in a growth spurt and Saskatoon, Regina and Winnipeg were ahead of previous years by 75 per cent.
In the very next paragraph, it called for a decrease in national starts to 177,000 units in 2013. The blame was placed on a lack of single-family detached growth and a decline in condominiums based on some speculation.
Let's take a closer look at these numbers. Atlantic Canada, Saskatchewan and Manitoba were never dependent upon the condominium market for their numbers. Calgary is starting to claw back from a few years ago and should hold steady. Toronto is not reliant on single-family detached numbers and neither is Vancouver.
Therefore, what this national report was really saying is that there will be fewer condos built in Vancouver and Toronto in 2013 than in 2012. There, I said in 15 words what it took them 15 pages to say.
A couple of Canadian Press reports also caught my eye recently. One reported consumer debt was growing at its slowest rate since before the recession; about 30 per cent lower than last year. Mortgage debt, credit card debt and bankruptcies were all down from last year.
Generally, a good news article, right? However, imbedded within this article was another smaller article, from the same financial source, that warned layoffs can be very dangerous to those carrying debt. Really? I guess this source wanted to give and take all in the same breath.
As I said in the introduction, all of this is interesting reading. However, drawing a conclusion from some of these lofty reports is another matter.
Mike Moore is president of the Manitoba Home Builders' Association.
