New Homes
New Homes
When market cools off it's not a bad thing
I just received a housing projection report from a very reputable housing analysis expert entitled "Most Major Markets Expected to Cool in 2013". Naturally, I was intrigued because two weeks ago, I received a highly trusted release that said "Prairie housing starts to remain elevated through 2013".
Why did these two reports differ and who was I to believe? As it turns out, both could be believed. I just needed a clarification of "Cool". Toronto is having an unbelievable boom year in 2012 with new home starts (primarily condos) up over 6,000 from the average of the previous 11 years. The forecast for 2013 is to return to the norm.
Vancouver new home starts are up 2,000 this year from 2011 and up 3,700 from the 10-year average. In 2013, the expectation is to drop to around that average or a little below. Calgary and Edmonton are experiencing start numbers in 2012 far superior to the doldrums of 2011. Projections for 2013 have both cities on par with this year or down negligibly.
Regina and Saskatoon have been through the roof the past couple of years, doubling and tripling 2009 numbers. Yes, the 2013 forecast for both cities shows a slight reduction in starts. However, down from all-time records isn't bad.
Finally, Winnipeg and Manitoba start numbers in 2012 are superior to what was projected at this time last year. In fact, they are better than what we thought even three months into this year. They are, in fact, the most starts in about 25 years. These start numbers should hold steady next year no big increase, no big decrease.
I guess when one doesn't improve at the same rate as before, it's called cooling off. If you hit a home run your first four times at bat and then hit a triple, have you cooled off or in a slump? Not likely.
Let's just take good news and good performance at face value and not look for the dark cloud.
------
The 2012 Fall Parade of Home starts September 15 and runs for three weeks.
All Parade show homes are rated and evaluated by interested volunteers like you. Your opinion on what you like and don't like and how one house compares to another in a similar price range is important.
To register as a Parade judge, please call (204) 925-2560 or e-mail info@homebuilders.mb.ca.
Mike Moore is president of the Manitoba Home Builders' Association.
New Homes
Low-income housing news also important
LAST week, the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation released its forecast for the rest of 2012 and for 2013. The news was certainly promising for Manitoba as continued growth was definitely in the picture.
However, articles in the Free Press indicate this growth may continue long-term and for all the right reasons.
The original forecast for 2012 was for 6,150 starts. This was then upgraded to 6,400 and now it sits at 6,800 starts for the year. In 2011, there were 6,083 starts, the most in more than 25 years. This year has been an excellent one for the industry as demand continues to run very high. It doesn't appear to be letting up soon as CMHC calls for 6,900 starts in 2013.
What encouraged me even more were a couple of recent articles about housing -- unrelated but equally important. On Saturday, Bruce Owen wrote an excellent article on the plight of non-profits that provide low-income housing.
In particular, he spoke of the newly formed Manitoba Non-Profit Housing Association and its first workshop in November. This large collective is committed to providing more housing in the province with a target market of low-income families.
On Monday, Brent Bellamy contributed to the series of articles regarding the development of the rail yards. This is just the most recent of some excellent in-depth articles on the subject of what might be done with the Canadian Pacific Railway yards northwest of our downtown.
Of course, this project isn't going to happen overnight, nor is it going to be the panacea for all our housing needs. However, once again, people are talking about the need for new housing in Winnipeg. There is continued enthusiasm about what could be done and what should be done. Either way, it spells continued growth for our city.
Although each of these items may be unrelated, they speak of the need for more housing. If we can provide the necessary housing, people will want and be able to live here. It all contributes to making Winnipeg a more complete city.
Mike Moore is president of the Manitoba Home Builders' Association.
New Homes
Winnipeg and Manitoba are reno leaders
Canadian Renovation Leaders. Both Winnipeg and Manitoba have earned this title. Let's look at some of the supporting information.
Winnipeg has the third-oldest housing stock in Canada and the oldest in Western Canada. On one hand, this means that builders here produce homes that last a long time. Manitoba builders have long been reputed to be among the best in Canada and, obviously, given our considerable variances in climate, our new homes have stood the test of time.
On the other hand, older homes generally mean increased renovations over time. The average square footage of a 50-year-old home is smaller than ones being built now, and so additions are a popular feature.
Manitoba leads the country in energy-efficiency initiatives, and so many renovations are for energy-saving upgrades. Many homeowners like their home, like their neighbours and like the local services they currently enjoy. So, rather than move, they renovate.
Manitoba is the only province where more money is spent on renovations per year than on new-home construction. This fact actually presents a double bonus for Manitobans.
Our renovation sector certainly enjoys a healthy existence, but this also speaks to the fact that our new-home market is extremely affordable with average prices tending to be lower than elsewhere in Canada. The combination of the two helps explain our leadership in that area.
The average renovation in Manitoba is slightly more than $8,000 -- below the national average in terms of costs, but leading the nation in frequency. With the cost of resale homes steadily increasing and inventory demand remaining high, this is an opportune time to consider a renovation for your home.
The Manitoba Home Builders' Association advises all consumers to shop with care when hiring a renovator for any project. Look for the RenoMark symbol to ensure that your renovator complies with all of the principles of this program.
A RenoMark renovator provides a detailed written scope of all work; offers a written warranty; carries a minimum of $2 million of liability insurance; ensures that all applicable licenses and permits are secured; and maintains a safe worksite.
All MHBA renovators carry the RenoMark label. After all, given that Winnipeg and Manitoba have earned the titles of the renovation capitals of Canada, it's only fitting that they continue to offer the best-quality service to their clients.
Mike Moore is president of the Manitoba Home Builders' Association.